Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS64 KSHV 152319
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
619 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

 - Hotter and more humid conditions are expected this weekend,
   with dry conditions persisting through Sunday morning.

 - While isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
   will be possible mainly across portions of North Louisiana
   Sunday, a more unsettled weather pattern for much of next week
   will result in increased convection coverage across the area
   Tuesday through at least Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave
trough extending from Wrn KS through the OK/TX Panhandles into
Cntrl NM, which has tapped a plume of elevated moisture from the
Ern Pacific into the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. This
moisture plume mainly consists of AC and cirrus cigs, with enough
ascent aloft ahead of this trough contributing to areas of weak
radar returns over portions of Cntrl and Ern OK. The vast majority
of these returns are not reaching the ground given the extensive
layer of dry air still residing above the sfc per the 12Z KOUN
raob. However, some sprinkles of -RA have been noted between OKC
and TSA, although the weak elevated returns over SE OK have failed
to do so given the lack of gauge reports and the various AWOS
stations failing to report a cig at or below 12kft. The weak
elevated forcing should persist through tonight into the mid-
morning hours Saturday as this parent shortwave slowly shifts E
through OK into the Ozarks, with any deep low level moisture
return neglishable to support anything reaching the ground over SE
OK/extreme NE TX/adjacent SW AR. Thus, will maintain a dry
forecast through much of the coming weekend as we will need some
time to moisten the column enough to support a deeper/more
extensive cu field while waiting for additional large scale
ascent.

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten Saturday in response
to leeside sfc low development over the OK/TX Panhandles, which
will result in a more modest return of low stratus over E TX/N LA
by and after daybreak Saturday, and more of a cu field for the
afternoon. Did nudge NBM temps up a degree or so to account for
the strong insolation with the decreasing elevated cigs with the
departing shortwave, as well as the ongoing warm/moisture
advection, with readings near or exceeding 90 degrees over much of
the area. A more extensive stratus shield should develop and
spread N across much of the region late Saturday night, with the
potential weak seabreeze developing during the afternoon while
being aided by a weak perturbation aloft that will traverse Srn
AR/N LA during the afternoon. The NBM has scaled back chance pops
(from previous runs) for the afternoon across N LA, which seems
reasonable with the more scattered coverage expected to be mainly
S and E of the region. However, did expand slight chance pops back
W a bit over N LA to account for any isolated convection that may
develop farther W and N.

The flow aloft will become increasingly SW through the day Sunday
leading into the start of the new work week, ahead of a deepening
upper trough that will dig S through the Great Basin Sunday before
traversing the Rockies Sunday night/Monday. Impulses embedded in
this flow regime should eventually contribute to more in the way
of scattered convection across the region Monday, although the
various ensemble members continue to struggle with the timing and
placement of the overall areas of deeper convection that could
affect the region. In any case, strong heating and the continued
influx of Gulf moisture should aid in adequate instability in and
near the ascent regions for increased shower and thunderstorm
development especially during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, with
convection possibly lingering into next weekend. While isolated
strong/severe storms with heavy rainfall can not be ruled out, the
greater potential for any severe through much of the extended
period looks to remain farther WNW of the region, closer to the
parent trough and stronger forcing.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For the 16/00z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail for
all terminals. There is some potential that some lower CIGs
tonight could bring some MVFR conditions for KTYR and KGGG, so I
have mention of OVC025 for both terminals around 16/12z.
Otherwise, BKN to OVC250 should continue for all terminals
throughout the majority of this TAF period, with some SKC towards
the very end of the period. Aside from this, southerly winds will
remain around 10 kts throughout this TAF period and gusts at times
will be around 20-25 kts through Saturday afternoon. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  90  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  70  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  69  89  68  87 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  72  92  70  90 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  70  89  66  87 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  71  89  71  90 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  89  71  90 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  70  90  72  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33