Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS64 KSHV 291117
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

 - We will stay locked into that typical summertime pattern here
   across the Ark-La-Tex as temperatures will hold near to
   slightly above average as we wrap up June and head into July.

 - Each afternoon, we will have a chance for a few pop-up showers
   or thunderstorms - the kind driven by daytime heating - but
   they will be hit-or-miss at best.

 - Still watching for the potential for the advection of Saharan
   Dust to drift into the region later today and into the start of
   the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

If you feel like you`ve hear this forecast before...you`re not
wrong. Tonight makes night three of a mostly copy-and-paste summer
weather forecast for the region. Highs today will once again climb
into the low to mid 90s, and while it`ll feel plenty hot, heat
index values that reach 105 degrees will stay isolated in nature -
so I have elected to once again hold off on issuing a Heat
Advisory for now. A few afternoon thunderstorms are still possible
for today, but the best chances will be down across our southern
counties. Most of us will stay hot, humid, and dry today followed
by another muggy and dry night.

Before we dive into the rest of the week`s forecast, there`s
something flying in from across the Atlantic that could play a
small role in our weather - Saharan Dust. The GMAO aerosol optical
thickness (AOT) model is showing signs that it could start
arriving by late this evening into the overnight hours. Now, for
most of us, this just means some extra color in those sunrises and
sunsets - a little more orange and pink than usual. But if you`ve
got allergies or asthma, it might be just enough to cause some
added irritation. You may have hear me tossing around the idea of
adding `haze` to the forecast over the past few nights and after
giving it a long look and thinking about it tonight, I don`t think
I am going to do so at this time. Haze usually mean reduced
visibility - that sort of milky, dull look to the sky - and I
don`t think this dust will be think enough to cause that. But
we`ll keep an eye on it and if that changes, we will update the
forecast accordingly once we see how thick the dust is when it
actually makes it to the area.

Why does this play a roll in the rest of the forecast? In general,
a Saharan Dust plume can reduce rainfall, impact air quality, and
even impact temperatures. Right now we have increased thunderstorm
chances on Monday across our northern zones, models might be
picking up on lower amounts across our southern zones based on the
dust. On Tuesday, the chances are greatest for our eastern zones,
but there are at least some chances across our entire region on
Tuesday. Again, the dust could limit some of this. As for
temperatures, Monday could be slightly warmer than today, with
more widespread heat index values around or greater than 105, so
we will need to look at the potential for some heat products.
Similar story on Tuesday and honestly for the rest of the week. If
you see some vibrant sunrises or sunsets from the incoming dust,
be sure to share them with us on social media!

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the 29/12z TAF update...VFR conditions continue to prevail
across the region at this time although satellite imagery has
shown some FEW/SCT high clouds moving through the area overnight.
I still have mention of some lower CIGs for KLFK this morning
although they have not started to drop yet so there is a chance
they will stay VFR as well. Expecting to see a CU field develop
later this morning and into the afternoon hours that will bring
SCT/BKN around 3-5k feet. We will see another round of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms although confidence remains low
that anything will actually impact any of our terminals at this
time. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

More diurnal convection today across our southern and eastern
zones. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe but could be
capable of producing strong winds. While reports are always
appreciated, spotter activation is not expected to be needed
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  77  95  77 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  94  76  95  76 /  30  10  30  30
DEQ  93  73  93  72 /  10   0  30  30
TXK  96  77  96  75 /  10  10  20  30
ELD  93  74  95  72 /  20  10  20  30
TYR  93  75  93  75 /  10   0  10  20
GGG  93  75  93  75 /  10   0  10  20
LFK  92  74  95  74 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33